A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF EPIDEMIC
Abstract
First let's construct the determined model of the dynamic of uncontrolled epidemiological process. The quotient β describes frequency of meetings of sick people with healthy and probability of infection. It is subject to action of random factors. Let's enter an item for it which will take into account the influence of a random destabilization. We'll have stochastic model of epidemic. Comparing the determined and stochastic models, we'll find admissible borders for destabilizing quotient σ if the maximum deviation of dynamic variables can not be higher than 5 %.
References
1. Kuznetsov D.F. Numerical modeling of stochastic differential equations and stochastic integrals St. Petersburg: Science. 1999. 459 p. (in Russian).
2. Dmitrieva O.N. A stochastic model of the dynamics of the forests. Collection of proceedings. Tver. 2006. 187 p. (in Russian).
Review
For citations:
Ovsyannikova N.I. A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF EPIDEMIC. Civil Aviation High Technologies. 2016;(224):107-114.
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