METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS
Abstract
Methodological approach to cumulative quantitative estimation of safety level is presented through probabilistic (frequency) indices of aviation events on the record, taking into account the importance of their сause factors. Based on the set-up correlation, the conditional probability of turning less service events into more severe events is recorded. Formulae for calculating the current value of the estimated probability of a serious incident (if in any), accident, crash are introduced.
References
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Review
For citations:
Lushkin A.M. METHODOLOGY OF PROBABILISTIC EVALUATING OF CURRENT ACCIDENT RATE BASED ON THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF AVIATION EVENTS. Civil Aviation High Technologies. 2015;(218):24-28. (In Russ.)
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