FUZZY RISK ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION EVENTS

Abstract

The article presents the technique of fuzzy expert assessment of risk that existed at the time an event occurred. The risk assessment is based on matrix proposed by the Airline Risk Management Solution (ARMS) Group. The matrix allows assessing such risks in the numerical values of the conditional average. The values of the indicators in the cells of the matrix obtained by use of data processing got from aviation insurance.In practice the risk assessment that existed at the time of the event is largely based on expert opinions, however ARMS Group does not offer the method of forming estimates expert group total opinion. Conventional methods of expert estimation and averaging of final grades is difficult due to the exponential nature of changes in risk values recorded in thecells, when considered by columns and by rows of the matrix.The proposed method of risk assessment uses the approach adopted in the formation of membership functions according to expert estimates in the theory of fuzzy sets. Experts are invited to classify each event according to one of the categories of potential damage and the effectiveness of barriers parry (defenses) using all available information. Processing of results is conducted using the method of expert analysis of fuzzy data based on the approach of fuzzy set theory. The seriousness (damage) of the occurrence and effectiveness of the barriers considered as linguistic variables, each of which has four term sets. This approach allows taking into account the opinions of experts and obtaining valid estimates of risk do not necessarily coincided with fixed values of matrix cells.