DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY-LINGUISTIC MODELS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION SECURITY IMPORTANT TECHNICAL FACILITIES

Abstract

The article is devoted to the realization of the principles of the probabilistic and linguistic approach to the formalization, presentation and subsequent processing of diverse information on the security status of important technical objects. On the basis of the process analysis of the potential infringer overcoming of the safety system the main restrictions are justified, and the assessment problem of the protected object vulnerability is formulated. The main advantage of the developed model is the extensive opportunities of formalization of diverse information on the security status of the object. On the basis of the developed model analysis two conclusions are drawn. The first conclusion is that the main nature of the ambiguity of information, formalized in the context of the developed model, is of a subjectively colored character, as the source of information is an expert with his knowledge and experience of potential infringer. The second important conclusion is that though theoretically the choice of the next impact on the safe operation system of important technical objects depends on the whole background of states and influences but in practice what influences are available to the «neutralization» of a functional element in the safe operation system of important technical object in the form of probabilistic and linguistic syndrome is given.