LIMITATIONS ON ICAO RISK MATRIX APPLICATION IN SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT
Abstract
The article analyzes the benefits and drawbacks of the matrix of consequences and probability (ICAO risk matrix) as a method of safety risk assessment. The ICAO matrix is a qualitative method of risk management based on expert assessments of the degree of probability of individual possible events and of their consequences. The method is simple and easy to use, but can only assess separate differential risks.
The article shows the failure of using the ICAO matrix for quantitative risk assessment of «past events» and deviations in the operational activity of the airline and getting an integrated risk of the airline and its monitoring.
The article also describes the limitations of this method in solving the tasks of corrective measures prioritization in case of negative correlation between the probability and severity of consequences of events.
About the Authors
V. D. Sharov
ЗАО «Авиакомпания «Меридиан»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. V. Vorobyev
МГТУ ГА
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. SMM ICAO Doc. 9859. ICAO, 3rd ed., 2013.
2. Advisory Circular No. 120-92, FAA USA, 2006.
3. Kruglov A.I. The system of safety management based on risk management. Scientific Bulletin of MSTU CA. 2008. No. 135. Pp. 171–178.
4. Levashov S.P. Methods of expert assessment of occupational risk. Safety. 2009. No. 1. P. 14–16.
5. ISO/IEC 31010 Risk Management-2011. Methods of risk assessment. M.: Standartinform, 2012.
6. The Security of Russia. Legal socio-economic and scientific-technical aspects. Risk analysis and security management (Methodical recommendations). Ed. N.A. Makhutov, K.B. Pulikovsky, etc. Moscow: MGF «Knowledge», 2008. 672 p.
7. Zubkov B.V., Sharov V.D. The theory and practice of risk management in the airlines when developing the system of safety management. M.: MSTU CA, 2010. 196 p.
8. Nisula J. Operational Risk Assessment. Next Generation Methodology. 2009. [Electronic resource] Access Mode: http://www.easa.europa.eu/essi/documents/
9. Makhutov N.A., Reznikov D.O., Petrov V.P. The use of risk matrices when performing risk assessment and prioritization of protective measures. Security issues and emergency situations. 2012. No. 1. Pp. 82–92.
10. Background and Fundamentals of the Safety Management System (SMS) for Aviation Operations. ALPA, Second Edition, 2006.
11. Orlov A.I. Organizational and economic modeling: tutorial. M.: Bauman MSTU, 2011. Part 2. Expert evaluation. 486 p.
12. Sharov V.D. Some mathematical and logical limitations on the use of the risk matrix in the SMS. Scientific Bulletin of MSTU CA. 2009. No. 149. Pp. 179–181.
13. Cox L. What's Wrong with Risk Matrices? Risk Analyses. 2008. Vol. 28. No. 2. Pp. 497–512.
14. Sharov V.D. Some problems understanding terms related to the safety management. Problems of Flight Safety. 2013. № 9. Pp. 12–21.
Review
For citations:
Sharov V.D., Vorobyev V.V. LIMITATIONS ON ICAO RISK MATRIX APPLICATION IN SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT. Civil Aviation High Technologies. 2016;(225):179-187. (In Russ.)
Views:
972
Email this article 
