THE APPLICATION OF REPRODUCTION OF STATISTICAL INFORMATION TO SOLVE PRACTICAL PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING THE ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF FLIGHT SAFETY IN THE SMALL AIRLINES

Abstract

Determinating the tendencies in varying indices of flight safety and taking all the necessary measures to enhance flight safety for small airlines is becoming the complex problem. The article proposes the use of methods of the reproduction (multiplication) of statistical information on the flight safety, to determine the acceptable level of flight safety for small airlines via the designation of confidence intervals. A similar approach enables to obtain the artificial random distributions, for example, of the deviations of mean operating time of the flight accident (incident) from the mathematical expectation of this operating time under the conditions of using limited statistical data. On the entry of the controlled index, into one or another interval it is possible to judge the acceptability of the assessed risk of flight safety, and also to propose measures to decrease it as the minimum to the acceptable.