Mathematical model of threats to an aviation data network under unauthorized access

Due to the increasing integration of onboard and ground-based data networks in aviation and the associated rise in information threats, the development of comprehensive models capable of assessing the security of such systems against unauthorized access is becoming increasingly necessary. One promising direction for enhancing the resilience of aviation networks is the creation of mathematical models that consider not only technical malfunctions and random equipment failures but also deliberate cyberattacks by intruders. This paper proposes a mathematical model of threats to aviation data networks, developed in accordance with ICAO recommendations and the requirements of ARINC standards. The network structure is represented as a directed graph, the nodes and edges of which are characterized by probabilistic indicators of failures and vulnerability to attacks. A distinctive feature of the developed model is the integration of probabilistic characteristics of random equipment failures, intentional attack scenarios, and parameters reflecting the efficiency of systems detecting unauthorized access. Utilizing probabilistic theory approaches, we synthesized an algorithm enabling the calculation of an integral indicator representing the risk of network connectivity loss and performance degradation. A significant aspect of this algorithm is its ability to simultaneously account for various types of threats and quantitatively assess the vulnerability of network elements. Numerical simulations of the proposed model were conducted, and results evaluating the criticality of specific network nodes and data transmission channels are presented. The analysis confirmed that applying the developed mathematical model provides a sound basis for identifying the most vulnerable aviation network components and selecting appropriate protective measures. 

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