TECHNIQUE AND SOFTWARE FOR PROJECT PROPOSALS EXPERT ASSESSMENT OF AVIATION AND ROCKETRY PRODUCTS

The essence of an expert assessment as a scientific method is a rational organization of experts analyzing the problem from a quantitative evaluation of judgments and results processing. A generalized opinion of the expert group is taken as the solution. The diversity of the problems solved by the experts is reduced to two types: a system analysis and a parametric analysis of the design proposal. The system analysis aims to confirm the feasibility (or non-expediency) of creating a new equipment model, to estimate its technical level and economic efficiency, taking into account requirements and possibilities of an upgraded technical system. The parametric analysis of the project proposal is to justify the validity of design parameters and characteristics of the considered technical system, their marketability, the importance of targets. Despite the relatively well-established and proven tools expertise methods, the expert assessment of complex technical systems project proposals still remains a challenge. The main difficulty is the decomposition of tasks, the definition of a hierarchical system of criteria (grounds on which project proposals are compared).

The technique and software for the expert assessment of project proposals for the sake of assessing the quality and competitiveness of aviation and rocketry products are suggested in the article. The technique of expert assessment involves the comparative analysis of project proposals in accordance with the formed system of criteria of products quality. The method of analysis of hierarchies, which is currently one of the most powerful and effective methods of the expert assessment and the decision-making, is used. Thanks to the hierarchical representation of the expert assessment task and the relatively simple procedure for the pairwise estimation of project proposals at each stage of the expert procedure, there is a possibility operatively to carry out the comparative assessment of a large number of alternative design proposals, using arbitrarily complex system of criteria.

An example of using the developed technique and software for the expert assessment of project proposals of aviation and rocketry products in the solution of the problem of choosing the rational option of constructive and technological patterns of a wing is given.

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